Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has lifted its gold price forecast to $3,300 an ounce by the end of 2025, citing intensified central bank demand and increased interest in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
This marks a notable shift from the bank’s previous forecast of $3,100, issued just last month. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven pointed to monthly central bank purchases averaging 70 tons this year—up from the prior estimate of 50 tons—as a key driver behind the upgrade.
Central Bank Buying Surges
The analysts highlighted that between November and January, central banks collectively bought around 190 tons of gold per month. They expect China to continue accumulating at a “rapid pace” for at least the next three years.
“Central banks — particularly in emerging markets — have increased gold purchases roughly fivefold since 2022, following the freezing of Russian reserves,” Thomas and Struyven wrote. “We view this as a structural shift in reserve management behavior, and we do not expect a near-term reversal.”
Investor Demand for Safe Havens Grows
Gold prices have risen 15% this year, surpassing the $3,000 mark for the first time. The rally has been fueled by the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing and heightened economic uncertainty triggered by President Donald Trump’s trade and foreign policy actions.
Inflows into gold ETFs have outpaced expectations, with analysts noting a return of investor demand for safe-haven assets. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of two rate cuts from the Fed in 2025, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge.
Potential for Even Higher Prices
“While ETF flows generally track Fed policy rates, history shows they can overshoot during extended periods of macro uncertainty — such as during the Covid-19 pandemic,” the analysts said. If ETF holdings climb to levels seen in 2020, prices could reach as high as $3,680 an ounce by the end of this year.
