U.S. markets saw mixed reactions Friday following the release of November’s nonfarm payrolls report, which aligned closely with expectations and bolstered investor confidence in a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. While stocks showed modest gains and Treasury yields dipped, oil prices fell, and European and Asian markets reflected cautious optimism.
Payrolls Meet Expectations Amid Labor Market Resilience
The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in November, surpassing forecasts of 200,000 and rebounding from an upwardly revised 36,000 in October, a month impacted by hurricanes and strikes. Despite the positive job growth, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2%.
“Today’s data is like a Thanksgiving buffet—payrolls hit expectations, revisions were positive, but unemployment edged higher despite a declining participation rate,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
Economists expect the report to support the Federal Reserve’s anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut during its December 17–18 meeting. Futures markets now place the probability of a rate cut at 87%, up from 68% earlier in the day.
Stock Market Performance
Two of Wall Street’s major indexes showed gains following the jobs report:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.16% to 44,696.
- S&P 500: Up 0.20% to 6,086.
- Nasdaq Composite: Up 0.56% to 19,811.86.
Treasury Yields and the Dollar
Treasury yields dipped after the report, with the benchmark 10-year note yield falling 1.4 basis points to 4.168% and the 2-year note yield dropping 4.8 basis points to 4.098%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% to 105.93, reflecting steady demand for the currency.
European and Asian Markets
European stocks edged up, with the STOXX 600 gaining 0.1% and Britain’s FTSE 100 rising 0.5%, buoyed by Aviva’s $4.6 billion acquisition of Direct Line.
In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index reversed losses to climb 0.2%, driven by a rally in Chinese technology shares ahead of a high-level policy meeting to set the economic agenda for 2025.
Oil and Gold
Oil prices fell as OPEC+ delayed its planned output hike to April amid concerns over weak demand:
- U.S. Crude: Down 1.3% to $67.41 per barrel.
- Brent Crude: Down 1.15% to $71.26 per barrel.
Gold prices inched up 0.3% to $2,639 per ounce, though they remained on track for a second consecutive weekly decline.
France’s Political Stability Calms Markets
In Europe, French markets found some relief after President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to appoint a new prime minister to secure the 2025 budget. The risk premium on French debt relative to German Bunds dropped to a two-week low.
The euro, which had rallied on Thursday following Macron’s announcement, remained flat at $1.057 by Friday.
The Road Ahead
With November’s job report reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut, investors remain optimistic about near-term market stability. However, concerns over global demand, political volatility, and central bank actions will likely shape the outlook for the remainder of the year and beyond.
