U.S. new vehicle sales are expected to increase by 2.5% year-over-year in June to 1.25 million units on a selling day-adjusted basis, according to a joint report by J.D. Power and GlobalData released Wednesday. However, unadjusted figures show a 5.4% decline compared to 2024, revealing distortions driven by unique market forces and prior-year disruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The sales landscape this year has been shaped in part by consumer fears over President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. Many buyers pulled forward their purchases to March and April in anticipation of price hikes, creating a short-term surge that is now reversing into lower June volumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the complexity is a significant cyberattack in June 2024 that disrupted dealer operations and suppressed sales by an estimated 85,000 vehicles. This artificially low base makes year-over-year comparisons for June 2025 appear stronger than they actually are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The average retail transaction price for a new vehicle in June is projected to hit $46,233, a 3.1% increase from last year. However, the sequential growth from May is minimal at 0.2%. Current tariffs are estimated to add roughly $4,275 in cost per vehicle, leading manufacturers to tighten incentive spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Incentives, once 6.1% of a vehicle’s sticker price in January, have been trimmed to just 5% this month as automakers attempt to manage margin pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“This reflects the cost-pressure tariffs are creating for manufacturers,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. “But it is also causing some shoppers looking for affordable vehicles to remain on the sidelines.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Total second-quarter sales are forecast to reach 4.18 million units, representing a 2.5% increase from Q2 2024. However, year-over-year comparisons for July are expected to remain murky due to a sales rebound in July 2024 following the resolution of dealer software outages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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