Brent crude prices may remain 15% to 20% above pre-conflict levels if ongoing Iran-Israel hostilities disrupt 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil exports, Citibank analysts said Thursday. This would keep prices in the $75 to $78 per barrel range, compared to around $65 in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As of midday Thursday, Brent futures were up 1.9% at $78.18 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 2.3% to $76.86. The upward trend reflects mounting geopolitical risk tied to potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
JP Morgan analysts said that in a worst-case scenario where the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil could surge to $120\u2013$130 per barrel. This strategic waterway handles a significant portion of global oil shipments, and its closure would severely impact supply chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran, OPEC\u2019s third-largest oil producer, pumps around 3.3 million bpd. A sustained disruption of 3 million bpd could drive Brent to $90, Citi warned, though it added that such price spikes would likely be brief as efforts to reopen key transit routes would be immediate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Citi also noted that falling Iranian exports and lower Chinese demand may reduce the price impact of future disruptions. Additional output from other OPEC members could further cushion the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cProduction elsewhere globally may have risen sufficiently to offset the disruption impact, particularly if the production disruption was expected,\u201d Citi said in its note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Goldman Sachs estimates that current Brent levels include a $10 per barrel geopolitical risk premium. Barclays said prices could reach $85 if Iranian exports are halved and might exceed $100 in a broader regional conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite varying projections, all major banks agree that geopolitical volatility will remain a key driver of oil prices through the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Citi sees $75\u2013$78 range if 1.1M bpd of Iranian exports are lost Brent crude prices may remain 15% to 20% above pre-conflict levels if ongoing Iran-Israel hostilities disrupt 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil exports, Citibank analysts said Thursday. This would keep prices in the $75 to $78 per barrel range, compared<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":6664,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[4129,4132,4135,4136,4134,2895,4133,4131,4130,4137],"class_list":{"0":"post-6663","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-brent-oil-prices","9":"tag-citi-oil-forecast","10":"tag-geopolitical-risk-premium","11":"tag-iran-israel-conflict-2","12":"tag-jp-morgan-oil-outlook","13":"tag-oil-exports","14":"tag-oil-market-disruption","15":"tag-opec-oil-supply","16":"tag-strait-of-hormuz","17":"tag-west-texas-intermediate"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6663"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6663"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6663\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6665,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6663\/revisions\/6665"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6664"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}