{"id":6349,"date":"2025-03-24T17:43:23","date_gmt":"2025-03-24T21:43:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/?p=6349"},"modified":"2025-03-25T17:44:44","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T21:44:44","slug":"tariff-fears-and-cost-surges-shadow-u-s-business-rebound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/?p=6349","title":{"rendered":"Tariff Fears and Cost Surges Shadow U.S. Business Rebound"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

March PMI shows growth \u2014 but confidence weakens<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U.S. business activity picked up in March, but S&P Global\u2019s latest survey reveals a more troubling undercurrent: rising input costs, tariff anxiety, and shrinking confidence<\/strong> across both services and manufacturing sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Composite PMI Output Index<\/strong> climbed to 53.5<\/strong> from 51.6 in February, signaling expansion. Services drove the gains, aided by warmer weather, while manufacturing fell back into contraction territory<\/strong> at 49.8 \u2014 down from 52.7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, optimism is eroding. Business confidence dropped to its second-lowest level since 2022<\/strong>, weighed down by the Trump administration\u2019s tariff plans and sweeping federal budget cuts, including mass public sector layoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cost pressures intensify<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Input prices surged at the fastest pace in nearly two years, fueled by higher tariffs, labor costs, and supply constraints<\/strong>. S&P\u2019s price gauge jumped to 60.9<\/strong>, the highest since April 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Manufacturers passed along some costs to consumers, lifting selling prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Service providers faced rising expenses but limited pricing power due to weak demand and heightened competition.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    The index tracking prices charged by businesses rose to 53.6<\/strong> from 52.3, indicating elevated inflation risks \u2014 especially troubling given recent Fed warnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Fed warns of slower growth, persistent inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The Federal Reserve last week lowered its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7%<\/strong> and raised its inflation estimate to 2.8%<\/strong> for core PCE \u2014 well above its 2% target. While rates remain unchanged at 4.25%\u20134.50%, policymakers cited rising uncertainty from both domestic policies and global trade disruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Gross domestic product growth for Q1 is tracking below 1.5%, with consumer sentiment deteriorating in tandem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Job growth sluggish, new orders rise<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Despite the overall PMI increase, labor market data remains mixed:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Employment edged up to 50.6<\/strong> \u2014 barely expansionary.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • New orders rose to 53.3<\/strong>, showing some demand resilience, especially in services.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Yet with businesses wary of long-term risks, hiring and investment remain cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Uncertainty clouds outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      \u201cWorries over tariffs and spending cuts are taking a toll<\/strong> on business sentiment,\u201d said Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global. \u201cActivity is up, but expectations are dimming.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      March PMI shows growth \u2014 but confidence weakens U.S. business activity picked up in March, but S&P Global\u2019s latest survey reveals a more troubling undercurrent: rising input costs, tariff anxiety, and shrinking confidence across both services and manufacturing sectors. The Composite PMI Output Index climbed to 53.5 from 51.6 in February, signaling expansion. Services drove<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":6350,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2754,3683,149,3680,3678,3684,3681,3685,2937,3682,3679],"class_list":{"0":"post-6349","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-economic-slowdown","9":"tag-fed-forecast","10":"tag-inflation","11":"tag-input-costs","12":"tag-manufacturing-contraction","13":"tag-pmi-march-2025","14":"tag-sp-global-survey","15":"tag-services-sector","16":"tag-tariffs","17":"tag-trump-administration-policy","18":"tag-u-s-business-activity"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6349"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6349"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6349\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6351,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6349\/revisions\/6351"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6350"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guardianglobe.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}